#### coit

##### Smarter than Diseqc

- Joined
- Nov 29, 2007

- Messages
- 71,478

Links to each week's poll will be added here as each game's poll is released:

TBD

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In previous seasons we've developed some scoring systems that attempt to incentivize picks that are close to the actual result. We have taken to calling these the TIAScore and the GGTScore weighting factors. These systems are described below.

**The @ThisIsAtlanta / @GoGATech Scoring Systems**

TIA Score Weighting:

TIA Score Weighting:

For a Win, your score equals your win probability.

For a Loss, your score equals 1 minus your win probability.

- If we win a game you predicted as 0.9 you get 0.9
- If we lose a game you predicted as 0.9 you get 0.1
- If we lose a game you predicted as 0.1 you get 0.6
- If we win a game you predicted as 0.1 you get 0.1

**GoGATech / 18in32 Scoring Modification:**

Score starts with the TIA scoring described above. Each game is given a result value according to the following index, which is based on the point spread of the final score:

- 0.4 = three possession (>16 pt) win
- 0.3 = two TD (>11 pt) win
- 0.2 = two possession (>8 pt) win
- 0.1 = TD (>3 pt) win
- 0.0 = win or loss by < 3 pts
- -0.1 = TD (>3 pt) loss
- -0.2 = two possession (>8 pt) loss
- -0.3 = two TD (>11 pt) loss
- -0.4 = three possession (>16 pt) loss

GGTScore = TIAScore * (1 - abs(VoteProb - 0.5 - GameResultValue)

This rewards vote probabilities that are closer to final outcome by giving them a higher weight than results that are further from the actual final outcome.

The final result of these two weighting systems produces a score that reasonably reflects how close to the actual result a voter's predictions are on a game by game and seasonal basis.

If you'd like to reminisce about past polls, links are below.

2019 Results Thread: https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/2019-preseason-probability-poll-results.101870/

2018 Results Thread: https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/2018-preseason-probability-poll-results.97791/